Overview
This article serves as a weather update pertaining to observations through March 10, 2016, and will look at the temperature and precipitation projections into late March. Data were obtained from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/) on 11 March 2016. Projections were obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/).
This article serves as a weather update pertaining to observations through March 10, 2016, and will look at the temperature and precipitation projections into late March. Data were obtained from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/) on 11 March 2016. Projections were obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/).
Before we get into these data we must go over a little terminology.
What is the difference between climate and weather?
Weather is the changes in variables, such as temperature and precipitation, over short period of time.
Climate is how the weather variables behave over long periods of time.
What are Climate Normals and Departure from Normals?
Climate Normals are thirty year averages of weather variables such as temperature, precipitation, and snowfall. Climate Normals are often times just referred to as "Normals" and will be in this article. These Normals are produced once every ten years by the Natiaonal Centers for Environmental Information. The most recent Normals range from 1981 to 2010. Normals for January, February, and March are in the table below.
Departure from Normals refers to how much any given observed weather variable differs from the thirty year average. For example, say the average February temperature was 30F in Howard County. The normal temperature is 27.5F. Therefore, the departure from normal is +2.5F. Therefore, February was 2.5 degrees warmer than normal.
Observed Weather and Departure from Normals
January 2016
Through January 2016, temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal. The majority of Howard County was normal. The below-left image depicts the January Average Temperature Departure from Normal. On average, January temperatures were near 24F. Howard County precipitation (total liquid rain and snowfall) was drier than normal by between 1 to 1.5 inches below normal.
What is the difference between climate and weather?
Weather is the changes in variables, such as temperature and precipitation, over short period of time.
Climate is how the weather variables behave over long periods of time.
What are Climate Normals and Departure from Normals?
Climate Normals are thirty year averages of weather variables such as temperature, precipitation, and snowfall. Climate Normals are often times just referred to as "Normals" and will be in this article. These Normals are produced once every ten years by the Natiaonal Centers for Environmental Information. The most recent Normals range from 1981 to 2010. Normals for January, February, and March are in the table below.
Departure from Normals refers to how much any given observed weather variable differs from the thirty year average. For example, say the average February temperature was 30F in Howard County. The normal temperature is 27.5F. Therefore, the departure from normal is +2.5F. Therefore, February was 2.5 degrees warmer than normal.
Observed Weather and Departure from Normals
January 2016
Through January 2016, temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal. The majority of Howard County was normal. The below-left image depicts the January Average Temperature Departure from Normal. On average, January temperatures were near 24F. Howard County precipitation (total liquid rain and snowfall) was drier than normal by between 1 to 1.5 inches below normal.
February 2016
February temperatures were on average of 2 to 4 degrees F above normal for Howard County. The image below-left represents the temperature departure from normals. The bottom-right is the precipitation departure from normals. Accompanied with that, was 0 to 0.5 inches drier than normal precipitation. Southeastern Indiana saw anywhere from 1 to 4 inches above normal precipitation for February. Through February, Howard County is just over an inch below normal for precipitation.
March 1 through 10
Because we have not observed all the weather in March, I have included the average daily temperature and total precipitation for the first 10 days of March. The below-left image is average temperature and below-right is accumulated precipitation. From this, we can see that the average temperature in March has been 42F, which is pretty warm for the beginning of March. Total accumulated precipitation is around 0.82 inches for the first 10 days of March, which is nearly 30% of the total normal precipitation for the month.
Weather Projections through Late March
The temperature and precipitation projections below were obtained from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). These maps display the probability of warmer/cooler and wetter/drier conditions.
6 to 10 Day Outlook
For the short term outlook, there appears to be higher chances for above normal temperatures (bottom left). In western-central United States, we can see that they have high chances of being colder than normal. The probability of precipitation is slightly higher than normal in Indiana. Below normal rainfall is highly probable in western United States.
8 to 14 Day Outlook
The cooler air looks to move toward Indiana within the next two weeks. Temperatures look to be near normal (bottom-left). Probability of precipitation looks to be around normal to slightly above normal (bottom-right).
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